The Death Of The Box-To-Box Midfielder.

In English football, some of the most celebrated players in recent history have been the dynamic box-to-box midfielders. Typified by Lampard and Gerrard in...

Latest Posts

Southampton 2-5 Tottenham: Mourinho’s reply to his doubters

For the first time in his storied career, Jose Mourinho started a league season with a defeat. Facing a freshly reinforced Everton at home,...

How will Gareth Bale fit in at Spurs-A look at Mourinho’s 4-2-3-1 formation

Multiple top-tier sources including BBC and the current Tier 1 Journalist Fabrizio Romano have confirmed that Spurs are in talks with Real Madrid over...

Fulham 0-3 Arsenal:Tactical Analysis – Willian, Gabriel superb in Arteta’s 3-4-3 formation

Lineups and Formation Fulham Fulham lined up in a 4-2-3-1. Rodak was preferred to new signing Areola in goal. The back 4 had Odoi (right), Bryan...

The European Resurrections of Ever Banega

It seems fitting that Éver Banega’s final bow in European competition involved him lifting the Europa League. Barring a surprise reversal in the future,...

Liverpool aren’t favourites to win the Premier League and here’s why

The glitter has barely settled on the Anfield pitch since Liverpool's self-styled Premier League title winning celebrations at the end of July and we're...

The Football Transfer Sources Reliability Guide

The modern-day football fan has access to an unlimited amount of information about their favourite player, club or team. And when it comes to...

How will Messi fit in at Man City- Pep’s thrilling 4-3-3 formation if Messi completes move

After Lionel Messi made it clear via fax that he wants to leave Barcelona, various reports have indicated that Man City are the favourites...

Football Books

Foul- The Beautiful Game, An Ugly Truth [Book Excerpt]

The clip-clop of football boot studs on concrete echoed through the tunnel over the hum of distant crowd noise. A drenched team of players...

Best Football Analytics Books

We have compiled a list of the best football analytics books for the casual football fan. Football analytics and data science/machine learning in general...

The Best Football Books of 2019

It's been another eventful year in the world of football. As we look forward to 2020, we have compiled a list of the best...

The Best Football Books of 2018

It's been another eventful year in the world of football. As we look forward to 2019, we have compiled a list of the best...

5 Books every Soccer fan needs to read before the FIFA World Cup 2018

The FIFA World Cup is just around the corner and it's the perfect time to brush up your history and facts about the World...

Are defensive players undervalued? A quantitative analysis

I always believed that defensive players might be undervalued compared to offensive ones, especially in the Premier League. Now, this was just a point of view, but this time, I thought, I would try to use data to figure it out!

The plan was simple: First link goals taken or scored to points earned, then link team values to the goals taken or scored.

This way, I was able to close, once and for all (a man can dream…) the debate. Also, as a bonus, you’ll see what your favorite Premier League Team should invest in according to this model.

How do goals scored impact the point tally of a team?

First, I wanted to see if my work was relevant whatever the league I choose as a case study. So I took the last 5 seasons (not including the current one) for the 5 biggest European leagues. I plotted the goal difference against the point tally of each team, adjusting the Bundesliga because teams only play 34 matches per season.

Goal difference vs points, top 5 leagues, last 5 years

As you can see, there is no difference between the leagues. Improving your goal difference always improves your point tally to the same extent regardless of the league you play in. I did choose to focus on the Premier League from then on, but thanks to this analysis, you’ll know the conclusions can be applied to other leagues too.

My next concern was that if there had been any change in the last seasons in this relation, to know if my takeaway will also be appliable to the future. So I took the last 10 seasons of the Premier League, and as you can see below, no difference can be spotted.

Goal Difference vs Points, Premier League, last 10 years

That’s great, we can conclude that the value of a goal doesn’t change, even if you switch the league or the season.

Next, to come closer to our subject, I wanted to see if a goal scored earns you as many points as a goal conceded loses. So I plotted the Goal For and Goal Against of every Premier League teams in the past 5 years and compared it to the points earned.

Goal For vs Points, Premier League, last 5 years

Goal Against vs Points, Premier League, last 5 years

As you can see, a goal scored for you earns you slightly fewer points than a goal avoided against you in average: 0.95 points against 1.12 points. So on the whole, it’s better to avoid a goal than to score.

How does a team valuation correlate with its Goals For and Against?

The next step is to look if a team valued higher in attack scores more goals, and if a team valued higher in defense prevents more goals, and to what extent.

For each team of the last 5 years of the Premier League, I counted the following players as the defensive players: goalkeeper, defender, defensive midfielder, and the other one as attacking players.

I summed up the transfermarkt values of the players to get the defensive value of the team and did the same for the attacking players. I then compared each value to the league average that season.

Having done that, I could plot the goals scored as a function of the offensive value of your team,

Attacking Value Ratio to the league Average vs Goals For, Premier League, last 5 years

And the goals conceded as a function of the defensive value of your team

Defensive Value Ratio to the league Average vs Goals Against, Premier League, last 5 years

So here you can see that improving your offense by say 10% gets you more goals (1,96) than doing the same for the defense saves you (1,42).

If we combine both results, we can say that improving your team offensive value by 10% will earn you 1,87 points on average when doing the same in defense would only earn you about 1,60 points.

That being said, attackers are valued higher, so we should not only look at the relative augmentation like we just did, and consider the absolute value.

Are defenders undervalued?

Last year, the total attacking valuation in the Premier League was around 4684 M€ when the defensive was 3294 M€.

So we can calculate that each Million Euro invested in an attacking player would get you 0.080 points on average when doing so in a defensive player would get you 0.097 points on average, or 22% more.

This is my conclusion: Yes defensive players are undervalued, probably to the extent of around 20%.

The logic Follow Up question is: Why is that?

Why are defensive players undervalued?

The first reason I can think of is star power: an offensive player is always more flashy and will sell more jerseys, perhaps get you more sponsors… All the valuation of a player is not linked to its sportive value.

But there is one other reason that I wanted to show you: The effect of a better defense is not as deterministic as a better offense.

If I plot for each team the difference to my model, you can see that there is less spread when it comes to attack. So a defensive improvement will improve your team most of the time, but sometimes it will have no effect or even a negative effect on your team overall whereas a good attacking player will almost always improve your attack.

Spread between the theoretical goal for vs actual goal scored for the attack, and Spread between the theoretical goal against vs actual goal taken for the defense, Premier League, last 5 seasons

Investing in offensive players is more reliable when it comes to results, even though these results are on average slightly worse than for defensive players.

V. What should my team invest in?

It’s not because a defensive investment is most of the time better for a team that is the case for every team.

Below you’ll find what I think each Premier League team should invest in, according to the latest values of their teams. Example: Sheffield would get 31% better results for every M€ invested in attack compared to defense.

Premier League teams optimal investment

This post first appeared on Reddit by u/deuxiemement

- Advertisement -

Related

Southampton 2-5 Tottenham: Mourinho’s reply to his doubters

For the first time in his storied career, Jose Mourinho started a league season with a defeat. Facing a freshly reinforced Everton at home,...

How will Gareth Bale fit in at Spurs-A look at Mourinho’s 4-2-3-1 formation

Multiple top-tier sources including BBC and the current Tier 1 Journalist Fabrizio Romano have confirmed that Spurs are in talks with Real Madrid over...

Fulham 0-3 Arsenal:Tactical Analysis – Willian, Gabriel superb in Arteta’s 3-4-3 formation

Lineups and Formation Fulham Fulham lined up in a 4-2-3-1. Rodak was preferred to new signing Areola in goal. The back 4 had Odoi (right), Bryan...

The European Resurrections of Ever Banega

It seems fitting that Éver Banega’s final bow in European competition involved him lifting the Europa League. Barring a surprise reversal in the future,...

Liverpool aren’t favourites to win the Premier League and here’s why

The glitter has barely settled on the Anfield pitch since Liverpool's self-styled Premier League title winning celebrations at the end of July and we're...

The Football Transfer Sources Reliability Guide

The modern-day football fan has access to an unlimited amount of information about their favourite player, club or team. And when it comes to...

How will Messi fit in at Man City- Pep’s thrilling 4-3-3 formation if Messi completes move

After Lionel Messi made it clear via fax that he wants to leave Barcelona, various reports have indicated that Man City are the favourites...

How will Thiago fit in at Liverpool- A look at Liverpool’s 4-3-3 formation for next year

Liverpool are expected to make a move for Bayern Munich's midfielder Thiago according to the English outlet, Mirror. Thiago was instrumental in Bayern's Champions...

Latest Posts

Southampton 2-5 Tottenham: Mourinho’s reply to his doubters

For the first time in his storied career, Jose Mourinho started a league season with a defeat. Facing a freshly reinforced Everton at home,...

How will Dembele fit in at Liverpool- A look at Klopp’s thrilling 4-3-3 formation with Thiago & Dembele

English outlet Mirror has reported that Liverpool have made contact with Barcelona over the possibility of signing Ousmane Dembele in a loan deal. Having...

How will Gareth Bale fit in at Spurs-A look at Mourinho’s 4-2-3-1 formation

Multiple top-tier sources including BBC and the current Tier 1 Journalist Fabrizio Romano have confirmed that Spurs are in talks with Real Madrid over...

Fun Bets to Make During a Football Game

There’s something magical about football. Whether it is the larger-than-life personas of the players, the excitement of the competitions, or the actual thrill of...

Don't Miss

A look back at Liverpool’s treble winning 1983/84 season

In the wake of Manchester City’s record-breaking claim to the Premier League, The False 9 will look back at some of the greatest club...

Dimples, Kangaroos and Bohemians

One of the main tram routes in Prague is the 22. This goes all the way from Bíla Hora, the site of one of...

The Football match which started a war

Plenty of football stadiums have statues standing outside of them. There's strange one here and there (Michael Jackson formerly outside Craven Cottage springs to...

Remembering Arthur Wharton: The First Black Professional Footballer

In an interview from 1888, Arthur Wharton recalled overhearing a conversation between two fellow track competitors some years before. “Who’s he,” one rhetorically asked,...

Lifted Over The Turnstiles: Scotland’s Football Grounds In The Black & White Era

This most comprehensive book about old Scottish football grounds ever published, Lifted Over the Turnstiles contains almost 200 photos of 42 football stadiums here...

Transfers

How will Coutinho fit in at Arsenal: Arteta’s new look 4-2-3-1 formation

English outlet, Express are reporting that Arsenal are considering a loan deal for Barcelona's record signing, Philippe Coutinho. The report indicates that Coutinho might have...

How will Pjanic fit in at Barcelona? A look at Barcelona’s 4-3-3 formation for next season

As the deal between Barcelona and Juventus regarding the transfers of Arthur Melo and Miralem Pjanic has almost been finalised, let's take a look...

Three best Premier League transfers of all time

The Premier League is famous for its lavish spending on player’s transfers. Top clubs like Liverpool, Manchester City, and Manchester United have been spending...

Where will Kai Havertz play for Chelsea? A look at Lampard’s exciting 4-2-3-1 formation for next season

There have been several rumours surrounding Kai Havertz's transfer to Chelsea and Havertz's current boss, Peter Bosz has indicated that the winger might not...

Man United expected lineup against Sheffield United: Pogba & Bruno to start together for first time

Manchester United salvaged a draw against Tottenham in their first game post the lockdown. Their performance improved after the substitutions of Paul Pogba and...